Aaron David Miller: Trump's Foreign Policy Has Ruined Camp David Accords

Camp David Accords in Ruins

• 💡 The Camp David Accords, aimed at establishing a basis for two states and resolving core issues like Jerusalem, borders, refugees, and security, are now in "tatters and ruins."
• 🎯 The failure of the second Camp David summit in July 2000, despite an empowered US president, PLO leader, and Israeli prime minister, highlights a persistent lack of peace.

Current Conflict and Stakes

• 💥 The current conflict, marked by Hamas's attack on October 7th and Israel's response, has graver stakes with a higher number of innocent deaths and greater trauma.
• ⚠️ The ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, with significant Palestinian deaths and injuries, is seen as a consequence of Hamas courting the conflict.
• 🚫 Any interim agreement between Israel and Hamas will not signify an end to the war in Gaza or a credible negotiating process for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Lessons from Past Summits

• 🔑 The success of the first Camp David summit (1978) was attributed to leaders who were masters of their politics, willing to take risks (e.g., Begin and Sadat), and effective mediation.
• 📉 The failure of the second Camp David summit (2000) stemmed from a lack of such strong leaders and insufficient attention to the galactically difficult issues like Jerusalem and Palestinian statehood.
• 🧠 The US mediation efforts are criticized for not acting independently enough and failing to find a balance between both sides' positions.

Future Prospects and Fears

• 📈 The colossal loss of life and the breeding of future hate and antipathy will make Israel's position less secure, even with expanded Abraham Accords.
• 💬 The core issue is not a lack of understanding but a deep, mutual understanding that may dictate that forces of history, not diplomacy, will prevail.
• 💔 The current situation, exacerbated by October 7th, presents an enormously complicated problem with little hope for a rational, enlightened diplomatic resolution.