Aaron David Miller on Trump's Gaza Stance and Middle East Peace Strategy

Trump's Foreign Policy Approach

• 💡 Donald Trump's foreign policy decisions are often subordinated to his personal biases, vanities, political interests, and the financial interests of the Trump organization.
• 🧠 He tends to be more comfortable with autocrats than democrats and harbors a fundamental mistrust of Europe.
• 🎯 In Ukraine, his aim is to end the fighting but not the war, and in Gaza, he wants to get hostages out without a rational day-after strategy.

Assessment of Gaza War Prosecution

• ⚠️ While Trump may have criticized Israeli operations in Syria and called Netanyahu after a strike in Gaza, he has said virtually nothing about the way Netanyahu is prosecuting the war.
• 🏞️ Netanyahu has been given a huge margin to continue pursuing what is now argued to be a political war, as Israel's military objectives against Hamas are largely achieved.
• 🤝 A prediction is made for another interim agreement within 10-14 days, involving a limited exchange of hostages for a two-month ceasefire, Palestinian prisoners, and improved aid delivery.

Challenges to Middle East Peace

• 🧩 Achieving a final end to the conflict and long-term peace in the Middle East appears more elusive than ever.
• 🏝️ Trump's past ideas for Gaza, such as transforming it into a luxury resort, have been inconsistent and lack a clear strategic driver.
• 🚫 He lacks the focus and strategic thinking required to harness American power and incentives for a solution in Gaza.

Conditions for Preserving Abraham Accords

• 🔑 Preserving and expanding the Abraham Accords requires several key elements: an end to the war in Gaza, and a strategy that answers who will govern Gaza, provide security, and fund reconstruction.
• 🤝 There must also be a bridge to the Palestinian issue, which the current Israeli government is not capable of providing.
• 🗳️ Elections in Israel are anticipated in early 2026, which is not far away, and addressing these issues would be necessary for progress.