Aaron David Miller on the Futility of a Trilateral Meeting on Ukraine

Conditions for Successful Negotiations

• 🎯 Successful talks require four key elements: leaders willing to negotiate seriously, a mediator prepared to use both incentives and disincentives, a sense of urgency driven by pain and prospects of gain, and a deal both sides can claim as a victory.
• ⚠️ Currently, none of these four factors appear to be present in the circumstances surrounding the potential Ukraine peace deal discussions.

Trump's Negotiation Tactics

• 🚶‍♂️ The tactic of walking away from the table can be effective if used strategically to pressure parties to become serious.
• 🚫 However, walking away without a strategy, out of frustration, or due to a distracted attention span is not a productive approach.
• 🇺🇸 Unlike past negotiators like James Baker, there is a perceived lack of a strong mediator with the necessary leverage and strategy in the current situation.

Challenges for Zelenskyy and Putin

• 🤝 President Trump may desire another meeting, but a trilateral meeting right now lacks clear purpose.
• ❓ Ukrainian President Zelenskyy faces a dilemma: whether to meet with Vladimir Putin while Putin continues military actions against Ukraine, especially without a guaranteed ceasefire.
• 📉 Putin currently holds most of the leverage, and Trump appears unwilling to utilize his own cards to alter this dynamic.

The Role of the State Department

• 👤 The current White House appears to be dominated by Donald Trump alone, with a diminished role for the State Department and Secretary of State.
• 💡 An effective Secretary of State requires the president's supreme confidence, strong negotiation skills, and the willingness to advise the president even when it's difficult.
• ⚠️ Blind loyalty is a disaster; advisors must be willing to challenge the president's direction to improve outcomes.