Aaron David Miller on Obstacles to Gaza Peace Plan and US Diplomacy

Assessing the Gaza Peace Deal

• 📌 The current Gaza peace deal is in a fragile state following heavy Israeli retaliatory attacks after Hamas fired on soldiers.
• 💡 The visual impact of the destruction in Gaza is profound, with residents returning to pitch tents amidst the ruins of their homes.
• ⚠️ The term "genocide" is not applied to the situation, as it is characterized as a war being fought.

Challenges in Negotiation and Implementation

• 🎯 A key challenge is the lack of international pressure or consequences imposed on Israel and Hamas.
• 📝 The current plan is described as long on principles and short on details, requiring significant work after signing ceremonies.
• ⛰️ Major hurdles include establishing an international stabilization force to prevent Hamas reassertion and decommissioning their weapons.

Trump Administration's Diplomatic Approach

• 🤝 President Trump's approach to Israeli Prime Ministers, particularly Netanyahu, was unprecedentedly tough, involving significant pressure.
• ⚡ This pressure was compared to Dwight Eisenhower's threat of sanctions in 1956-57, highlighting a rare level of US leverage.
• 🗣️ Statements about eradicating Hamas are seen as serious, but the practical options for US involvement, such as deploying special forces or occupying Gaza, are questioned.

Future Diplomatic Strategies

• 🔑 The focus may shift to Trump's ability to lean on key Arab actors and use incentives and disincentives with both Israelis and Hamas.
• ⚖️ The goal is to ease Hamas into a situation where they are disarmed but can still play a role, a potentially mission possible scenario.
• 🌍 The hardest parts of the peace process are still yet to come, indicating the complexity of the situation.