Aaron David Miller on Netanyahu, Trump, and the Gaza War

Pressure on Netanyahu

• 💡 Benjamin Netanyahu is not currently facing significant pressure from the US, the Middle East, or the international community to alter his approach to the war in Gaza.
• 🎯 Despite protests in Israel and widespread destruction and famine in Gaza, Israeli leaders are proceeding with an offensive against Hamas.

US Presidential Influence

• 🔑 Donald Trump might impose serious costs on Netanyahu under specific circumstances: if he felt played, if Netanyahu made him look weak, or if Netanyahu obstructed something Trump deeply desired.
• ⚠️ However, none of these circumstances have applied in the last six months, and Trump's attention span makes it unlikely he will impose consequences.
• 🗣️ While some prominent MAGA figures are critical of Israel's actions, this does not represent the majority of Trump's base.

International and Regional Dynamics

• 🌍 European actions, such as a partial arms embargo by Germany, are not significantly impacting Israel's trajectory, especially given Germany's continued arms purchases.
• 🇸🇦 Arab nations, including treaty partners Jordan and Egypt, and Abraham Accord signatories like Bahrain and the UAE, as well as Saudi Arabia, have not imposed any costs or consequences on Israel or the US.
• ✈️ The international outrage and legal actions, like the ICJ and ICC proceedings, have not translated into tangible pressure on Netanyahu.

Netanyahu's Political Position

• ⚖️ Netanyahu faces trial for bribery, fraud, and breach of trust, and leads an extreme right-wing government.
• 🗓️ With the Knesset in recess until October 19th, he is largely free from legislative challenges to his government.
• 🔑 To change Netanyahu's calculations, sustained strikes shutting down the government, resignations from key security officials, and much bolder action from Washington would be necessary.

Future Outlook

• 🗳️ It is conceivable that Netanyahu could win another term, with elections potentially occurring in early 2026.
• 🤝 The US-Israeli relationship remains strong, with Trump having taken actions regarding Israel that previous presidents have not, driven by his transactional approach and lack of emotional attachment.
• ⏳ Trump is likely to act only when he believes there is something in it for him or when the situation directly holds him responsible.