24 hours till the Plenum: Xi and Zhang on a collision course

Unprecedented Military Purge

• 🚨 Nine senior military officials, including a CMC vice chairman and politburo member, were expelled from the party and military for “serious job-related crimes” just before the Fourth Plenum.
• ⏱️ The timing of the announcement (before the Plenum) and the messenger (Defense Ministry, not party organs) were highly unusual, suggesting a preemptive political move.
• ⚖️ This marks the first time the PLA has removed a sitting CMC vice chairman, setting a significant and unsettling precedent in CCP history.

Xi's Loyalists Targeted

• 🎯 All nine purged generals were hand-picked loyalists of Xi Jinping, including his “right-hand man” He Dong and “left-hand man” Miao Hua, severely weakening his faction.
• 🚀 Key figures involved in Taiwan operations (Eastern Theater Commander Ling Lei) and the Rocket Force (Commander Wu Bing, the fourth purged commander) were among those removed.
• ⚠️ Reports indicate another 28 generals, including Xi's chief of staff Jun Xiao Jing, have been dismissed, suggesting the “Xi Jinping army” is largely “wiped out.”

Media Silence and Division

• 📰 State media outlets like Xinhua, People's Daily, and CCTV either downplayed or completely ignored the earth-shattering purge, burying the news or presenting it as a routine Q&A.
• ⚔️ This stark contrast between the Defense Ministry's announcement and the state media's reaction reveals an open division between the CCP's propaganda system and the military.
• 💡 The speaker argues this media behavior is the biggest evidence that the purge was not Xi Jinping's action, but rather a move by an opposing faction.

Zhang Youxia's Counter-Move

• ♟️ CMC Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia is believed to be leading a counter-move to prevent Xi Jinping's comeback and avert a potential civil war within the CCP.
• 💬 Zhang reportedly visited party elders like Hu Jintao, expressing concern over unusual personnel rotations in the Central Security Bureau and activities around the Fourth Plenum venue.
• 🛡️ This suggests Xi's earlier promise to step down might have been a smoke screen, and Zhang's faction is acting to block a “radical power struggle.”

Looming Political Confrontation

• 🚨 The CCP is openly divided and potentially “at war,” with the leadership crisis approaching a dangerous tipping point just 24 hours before the Fourth Plenum.
• ⚖️ The PLA Daily published a contradictory editorial glorifying Xi Jinping after the Defense Ministry's announcement, indicating intense pressure and internal conflict.
• 🇨🇳 The speaker suggests a 51% likelihood that Xi Jinping will be replaced at the Plenum, as opponents seek legitimacy for such a move.