2026 Conflict Hotspots: MI6 Chief's Warning & ACLED's Global Analysis

Global Conflict Escalation

• 🌍 The world is entering a dangerous new era of conflict, with the frontline now perceived as being "everywhere."
• 📈 Conflict rates have doubled in the last five years, with 2024 seeing an absolute doubling from 2019, and this high rate is expected to continue.
• ⚠️ Approximately one in six people are now directly exposed to political violence or conflict.

Modern Warfare and Drone Dominance

• ✈️ Drone strikes and air attacks now account for 28% of all conflict events globally, a significant increase.
• 🤖 Both state actors and non-state armed groups are increasingly utilizing technological and sophisticated weaponry, including drones.
• 💥 While drone warfare allows for distance, it remains extremely destructive, comparable to burning down a village.

Europe and Ukraine's Intensified Conflict

• 🇪🇺 Europe has become the most intense conflict zone globally, largely due to the ongoing war in Ukraine.
• 💀 Ukraine recorded nearly 70,000 fatalities in the first 11 months of 2025, with a 53% increase in battle events compared to the previous year, indicating an intensification of combat.
• 🇷🇺 Russia has brought in mercenaries, emboldening its position and potentially aiming to win through Ukrainian force exhaustion.
• 🗺️ Despite its intensity, Ukraine is not in the top 10 most extremely violent places due to ACLED's criteria including fragmentation and diffusion, with countries like Myanmar ranking higher due to their complexity.

Shifting Conflict Zones and Actors

• 🇸🇩 Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is identified as the world's deadliest non-state armed group, responsible for 11% of civilian deaths by such actors.
• 🇸🇦 The RSF is believed to be funded and trained by the UAE, while other countries like Egypt and Turkey try to prevent their takeover.
• 🌍 Key global powers including Israel, Russia, UAE, and the United States are playing outsized roles in shaping the geopolitical map through alliances and targeting perceived threats.
• 🇮🇱 In the Middle East, violence in Gaza has decreased post-ceasefire, but the Palestinian occupied territories remain a high-concern area, with increased Israeli military activity in the West Bank.
• 🇸🇾 Syria, despite a decrease in overall violent events, has seen incidents become three times deadlier, with high-impact attacks concentrated in minority communities, exacerbated by foreign military actions.

Latin America and Emerging Threats

• 🌐 Latin America and the Caribbean face significant domestic challenges from gangs and cartels, leading to widespread violence and civilian exposure.
• 🇪🇨 Ecuador is at the epicenter of criminal violence, with homicide rates for children and adolescents skyrocketing and 70% of the population exposed to regular violence.
• 🇵🇰 Pakistan faces multi-front conflicts, including tensions with India, clashes with Afghanistan, and internal regional problems.
• 🇾🇪 The Red Sea remains a hotspot due to Yemen's complex proxy conflicts involving Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Iran, with the Houthis adept at creating international trouble.

The New Normal of Conflict

• 🚨 The world is experiencing a new normal of heightened conflict, with an increase expected in 2026.
• 💰 Increased defense spending and a shift in global priorities towards national interests over humanitarianism are driving this trend.
• 🌍 Major global powers are actively reshaping the geopolitical landscape, indicating a continued era of uncertainty and conflict.