2025 Fantasy Football Regression Candidates: James Cook, Baker Mayfield, Terry McLaurin, Tee Higgins

Regression Candidates for 2025

• 🎯 James Cook is identified as a regression candidate due to his 18 total touchdowns last season, a number considered difficult to repeat, especially for a Buffalo Bills running back.
• 💰 His fantasy points were heavily reliant on touchdowns (40.5% of PPR points), and concerns exist about his contract situation and potential hold-in or hold-out.
• 📈 While he was RB11 per game last year, his 1,267 yards in 16 games and only 32 catches suggest potential for a dip if touchdown production decreases.

Baker Mayfield's Potential Dip

• 📉 Baker Mayfield's 44 total touchdowns in 2024 are seen as a high mark that may be difficult to replicate, despite an improved receiving corps.
• ⚠️ Regression is expected in his rushing yards (22.2 per game, up from a career-high of 10.3) and his 7.2% touchdown rate (career average is 5%).
• 🏈 Concerns also include the age of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin's recovery, offensive line stability, and a new play-caller, making him a potential bust despite his third-place finish last season.

Terry McLaurin's Touchdown Dependence

• ⚡ Terry McLaurin had his best season largely due to an increase in touchdowns (13), significantly higher than his usual 4-6 per season.
• 📊 With 29% of his PPR fantasy points coming from touchdowns, a return to his historical touchdown numbers could significantly impact his fantasy value.
• 🎯 Despite being WR16 per game, his target volume (117 in 17 games) needs to increase, and the addition of another receiver and a second-year quarterback (Jaden Daniels) add uncertainty.

Tee Higgins' Touchdown Outlook

• 📈 Tee Higgins is considered a regression candidate due to his 10 touchdowns in 12 games last season, a career-high rate, especially as he was in a contract year.
• 🏈 While he was WR5 per game and could still achieve double-digit touchdowns with Joe Burrow, his touchdown dependency (27% of PPR points) is a factor.
• 🚀 With Burrow's strong offensive potential, Higgins could still be a valuable receiver, but his draft position (round two or three) is now higher than his previous value, making him a riskier pick compared to last year.