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Fantasy Football Playoffs: Advanced Stats, Start/Sit Advice & Matchup Analysis

Fantasy Football TodayDecember 10, 202458 min11,572 views
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Team-by-Team Advanced Stats Analysis

  • 🏈 Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride show strong first-read target rates (32%), with Harrison Jr. having a 21% target share and 45% air yardage share. James Conner maintains a 74% rush share.
  • 🏈 Atlanta Falcons: Drake London leads with a 32% first-read target share over the past month, seeing over 70 catchable air yards per game.
  • 🏈 Baltimore Ravens: Zay Flowers shows high air yardage but struggles with catchable targets (3.7/game). Mark Andrews has a perfect catch rate on his endzone targets.
  • 🏈 Buffalo Bills: Amari Cooper boasts a 42% air yardage share and a 17-yard average depth of target, though his outcomes can be volatile.
  • 🏈 Carolina Panthers: Adam Thielen is a top-20 receiver based on recent catchable targets (at least 9 per game) and air yards.
  • 🏈 Chicago Bears: DJ Moore's average depth of target has dropped significantly, making upside difficult. D'Onta Foreman shows efficiency in the run game.
  • 🏈 Cincinnati Bengals: Jamar Chase saw a 50% first-read target rate. Both Chase and Tee Higgins rank top-five in catchable air yards over the past month.
  • 🏈 Cleveland Browns: David Njoku has seen a resurgence in target rate (36%) and has 7 endzone targets in his last four games.
  • 🏈 Dallas Cowboys: CeeDee Lamb has a 23% target share but a low 6-yard average depth of target. Rico Dowdle shows efficiency and strong yardage gains.
  • 🏈 Denver Broncos: Courtland Sutton has strong target and air yardage shares (28% and 45% respectively), comparable to Mike Evans' role.
  • 🏈 Detroit Lions: Amon-Ra St. Brown's first-read target share has dipped below 20% in three games this season, a deviation from previous years.
  • 🏈 Green Bay Packers: Christian Watson leads with over 150 air yards in the last three games, with 93% of his targets being catchable.
  • 🏈 Houston Texans: Nico Collins has a 34% first-read target rate, while Tank Dell has a high average depth of target but lower catchable rates.
  • 🏈 Indianapolis Colts: Michael Pittman leads with a 29% first-read target rate, but the team's receivers are generally difficult to trust.
  • 🏈 Jacksonville Jaguars: Brian Thomas Jr. is dominating in the second half, with a 70% first-read target rate and 8 of 9 targets caught in one half.
  • 🏈 Kansas City Chiefs: DeAndre Hopkins shows strong underlying usage with over 100 air yards per game, but his route rate is a concern.
  • 🏈 Las Vegas Raiders: Michael Mayer had a 68% route rate in his return, while Sincere McCormack dominated the backfield rush share (94%).
  • 🏈 Los Angeles Chargers: Josh Palmer leads with a 35% first-read target share, but Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are also notable.
  • 🏈 Los Angeles Rams: Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp dominate targets, with Kupp seeing more endzone targets over the past month.
  • 🏈 Miami Dolphins: Jaylen Waddle has a high catchable air yardage rate (207/229), suggesting strong efficiency.
  • 🏈 Minnesota Vikings: Jordan Addison leads with a 53% first-read target share, while Aaron Jones maintains a significant rush share despite fumbles.
  • 🏈 New England Patriots: Hunter Henry leads the team with a 24% first-read target rate, but the offense struggles overall.
  • 🏈 New Orleans Saints: Alvin Kamara's first-read target share has dropped to 8% over the past month.
  • 🏈 New York Giants: Malik Nabers shows strong volume with a 37% first-read target share over the past month and 8 catchable targets per game.
  • 🏈 New York Jets: Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams share a 30% first-read target rate over the past month, with Wilson seeing deeper targets.
  • 🏈 Philadelphia Eagles: A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith share a 40% first-read target rate, with Brown expected to see more volume with Dallas Goedert out.
  • 🏈 Pittsburgh Steelers: Scotty Miller led with a 29% first-read target rate, but the team is using a committee approach with George Pickens out.
  • 🏈 San Francisco 49ers: Jauan Jennings leads with a 33% first-read target share, while Christian McCaffrey has a high target share for a running back (17%).
  • 🏈 Seattle Seahawks: DK Metcalf maintains a high first-read target share (32%), but his catch rate on catchable targets is low. Jaxon Smith-Njigba shows efficient games but lacks consistent volume.
  • 🏈 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Evans has a 30% target share over the past month and a strong connection with Baker Mayfield.
  • 🏈 Tennessee Titans: DeAndre Hopkins leads with a 57% first-read target share, but his catchable rate is only about 50%.
  • 🏈 Washington Commanders: Zach Ertz leads with a 25% first-read target share, while Brian Robinson Jr. is a top-12 option if healthy, commanding a high rush share.

Quarterback Start/Sit Recommendations

  • 🎯 QB1 Tier: Jalen Hurts (5th), Kyler Murray (6th, strong matchup vs. Patriots), Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow are considered locked in.
  • πŸ’‘ QB2/Superflex Considerations: Drake Maye is ranked higher than consensus (15th vs. 21st), with favorable matchups. Sam Darnold and Brock Purdy are also strong plays.
  • ⚠️ Lower Consensus Plays: Tua Tagovailoa is ranked lower than consensus due to tougher matchups compared to others like Mahomes and Purdy.
  • 🧠 Potential Upside: Jameis Winston is seen as a potential high-upside play in shootouts, while Bryce Young is ranked highly due to his recent play and matchup against Dallas.

Running Back & Wide Receiver Insights

  • πŸš€ RB Rankings: Zack Charbonnet and Tyjae Spears are ranked highly (RB9/10), ahead of players like Bijan Robinson and Saquon Barkley. James Conner and Brian Robinson Jr. are also strong starts.
  • ⚑ WR Tiers: A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Justin Jefferson lead the top tier. Jauan Jennings is ranked highly due to strong usage and matchup.
  • πŸ“ˆ Rookie Watch: Brian Thomas Jr. and Ladd McConkey are ranked higher than consensus, showing significant upside.
  • ❓ Volatile Options: Calvin Ridley and Zay Flowers present high upside but also high volatility. DK Metcalf's volume is high, but his catch rate is a concern.
  • 🎯 Matchup Focus: CeeDee Lamb's ranking is supported by matchups, but his low average depth of target is a concern. Malik Nabers is a strong play despite a tough matchup against Baltimore.
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Fantasy FootballAdvanced StatsStart/Sit AdviceMatchup AnalysisNFL PlayoffsTarget ShareAir YardsAverage Depth of Target (aDOT)Catchable TargetsFantasy Football RankingsQuarterbackRunning BackWide ReceiverPlayer UsageFantasy Football Advice
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