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Fantasy Football Buy Low Candidates: Week 3 Analysis with Pat Fitzmaurice

Fantasy Football TodaySeptember 19, 202450 min11,135 views
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Brandon Aiyuk: Buy Low Opportunity

  • πŸš€ Despite a slow start and missing training camp, Brandon Aiyuk is poised for a breakout, especially with Debo Samuel sidelined.
  • 🎯 Aiyuk's target per route run rate significantly increases when Samuel is off the field, approaching elite levels similar to Justin Jefferson.
  • Rams' defense has struggled against outside receivers, making this a favorable matchup for Aiyuk to regain form.
  • πŸ’° Even at his draft value, trading for Aiyuk is recommended due to his potential to outperform expectations in the immediate future.

Chris Olave: Emerging Buy Low Candidate

  • ✨ The Saints offense, under Clint Kubak, has shown improvement, with Derek Carr playing well.
  • πŸ“ˆ Olave's target share has been suppressed due to the Saints blowing out opponents early, leading to fewer pass attempts.
  • 🏈 Kubak has added nuance to Olave's route tree, moving beyond simple go routes and hitches, indicating a more sophisticated usage.
  • ⚠️ While Saints' passing volume is currently low, this is expected to increase as they face tougher opponents, benefiting Olave.

DJ Moore: Potential Buy Low Amidst Bears' Struggles

  • 🐻 DJ Moore is a buy-low candidate due to the Chicago Bears' offensive line struggles and difficult early matchups.
  • 🎯 Moore ranks high in expected fantasy points, suggesting underlying potential despite current low output.
  • πŸ“ˆ Optimism exists for the Bears' offense to improve, with Moore expected to be a primary target for rookie QB Caleb Williams.
  • πŸ“Š Moore has historically thrived in less-than-ideal offensive situations, indicating resilience.

Travis Kelce: Tentative Buy Low with Caution

  • 🏈 Travis Kelce shows increased snap shares, but concerns about age-related decline and a potential decrease in actual route share exist.
  • πŸ“‰ His current target share is unusually low (14%), raising questions about his involvement.
  • πŸ€” While the Chiefs are using more tight end sets, potentially reducing competition, Kelce's overall involvement remains a question mark.
  • ⚠️ Buyers should be aware of the risk that Kelce might be past his prime, making him a tentative buy-low.

Tank Dell: Talent-Based Buy Low

  • ⚑ Tank Dell possesses significant talent and is part of a potent Texans offense, making him a potential buy-low.
  • πŸ“ˆ He runs a comparable number of routes and sees similar targets to Stefon Diggs, indicating a strong role.
  • 🎯 Dell's fantasy points per route run, while lower than last year, still shows promise, and he can produce big plays on limited touches.
  • πŸ“Š Despite volatility due to target sharing with Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs, Dell is a recommended start and buy.

Amari Cooper: Buy Low with Hesitation

  • πŸ“‰ Amari Cooper has been a disappointment due to inconsistent quarterback play from Deshaun Watson and offensive line issues.
  • ⚠️ Cooper leads the Browns in expected fantasy points but ranks very low in actual fantasy points, highlighting a disconnect.
  • πŸ€” Watson's off-target throws and Cooper's uncharacteristic drops have hurt his production.
  • 🀷 The Browns' offense appears broken, making Cooper a risky buy-low, primarily banking on potential QB changes or a significant offensive turnaround.

Michael Pittman Jr.: Limited Buy Low Hope

  • πŸ“‰ Michael Pittman Jr. faces challenges with the Colts' inconsistent offense and the return of Josh Downs.
  • πŸ“Š His efficiency has dropped significantly, with under one yard per route run.
  • ⚠️ The Colts' defense is weak, potentially forcing them into more passing, but Pittman's role and efficiency remain concerns.
  • πŸ€” Hope for Pittman lies in the Colts being forced to throw frequently due to defensive struggles.

Terry McLaurin: Potential Buy Low Amidst Offensive Struggles

  • ❓ Terry McLaurin is a potential buy-low due to the Commanders' offensive scheme and quarterback Jalen Daniels' tendencies.
  • 🎯 Daniels' low average intended air yards and horizontal passing game may present opportunities for McLaurin, especially if defenses press up.
  • πŸ“‰ However, the Commanders' offense struggles with target volume and efficiency, making any player a risky proposition.
  • 🀷 McLaurin's value is tied to potential scheme adjustments and Daniels' development.

Deontay Johnson: Top Buy Low Candidate

  • Panthers QB Andy Dalton may provide a spark for Deontay Johnson, making him a top buy-low target.
  • πŸ“ˆ Johnson leads the Panthers in targets, indicating a secure role in the passing game.
  • 🏈 With a potentially high volume passing game due to defensive weaknesses, Johnson could see significant volume.
  • 🎯 Dalton's proficiency in the intermediate range could mesh well with Johnson's strengths.

Christian Kirk: Avoid Buying

  • ❌ Christian Kirk is not recommended as a buy-low target due to concerns about the Jaguars' offense.
  • πŸ“Š Despite leading the Jaguars in expected fantasy points, nullified plays and confusing usage patterns are red flags.
  • πŸ€” Kirk's average depth of target is high, but the offense's overall structure and play-calling are questionable.
  • 🀷 The Jaguars' offense appears to be running a
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Fantasy FootballBuy Low CandidatesSell High CandidatesBrandon AiyukChris OlaveDJ MooreTravis KelceTank DellAmari CooperMichael Pittman Jr.Terry McLaurinDeontay JohnsonChristian KirkMalik NabersMarvin Harrison Jr.James CookJahmyr GibbsRashaad WhitePat FitzmauriceFantasy ProsNFL
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