Suzanne Maloney on Iran Protests, Sanctions, and Potential Military Action

Iranian Regime's Brutality and Control

• ⚠️ The Iranian regime has demonstrated a willingness to use extreme brutality to maintain its grip on power, as evidenced by its violent crackdown on protesters.
• 🎯 Despite potential US military strikes, the regime is considered hardened and likely to retaliate with all available assets, potentially escalating the conflict.

US Sanctions and Military Options

• 📉 New US sanctions are aimed at increasing pressure on the regime, contributing to an economy in freefall and worsening daily living conditions for Iranians.
• ⚡ While a large strike was reportedly called off, signs of military assets being moved to the region suggest continued planning for significant action.
• 🗺️ A strike that leads to the collapse of the Iranian state could result in long-term instability, which regional partners like Saudi Arabia wish to avoid.

Retaliation and Regime Survival

• 💥 Unlike previous actions (strikes on nuclear facilities, assassination of Qassem Soleimani), the current situation may prompt a larger retaliation from Iran due to the regime being heavily pressured domestically.
• 🤝 The regime's desperation to cling to power is highlighted by its willingness to take unprecedented actions against its own people.

Long-Term Strategy for Iran

• 💡 The United States, in collaboration with allies, should focus on isolating the regime and applying greater pressure, while simultaneously building conditions for an opposition movement to emerge and organize.
• ⏳ Achieving a transition to a new government in Iran will require sustained time and effort, with the US taking a leading role.
• 🌍 The international community must support the Iranian people in changing the regime, especially as their daily living conditions are dire due to economic collapse and sanctions.