Saudi-UAE Conflict in Yemen: Mukala Airstrikes and Shifting Alliances

Escalating Internal Conflict

• ⚠️ The Saudi-led coalition, initially formed in 2014 to combat Houthi rebels in Yemen, has seen an open rift emerge between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
• 💥 This internal conflict escalated dramatically in late 2025, culminating in Saudi airstrikes against suspected UAE-backed forces in Mukala.
• 🤝 What began as a unified front against the Houthis has transformed into a complex struggle where former allies are now confronting each other.

Diverging Strategic Interests

• 🎯 Saudi Arabia's primary focus in Yemen is on maintaining stability, preventing Iranian influence through the Houthis, and restoring the internationally recognized government.
• 🇦🇪 In contrast, the UAE aims to build influence in southern Yemen by supporting local actors, particularly the Southern Transitional Council (STC).
• 🗺️ These differing objectives led to the fragmentation of the anti-Houthi coalition and fueled internal clashes, particularly in resource-rich regions like Hadramaut.

Key Territorial Control

• 📍 The Houthis control most of northern Yemen, including the capital Sanaa and the strategically vital Red Sea coast and Bab Al-Mandeb Strait.
• 🛡️ The UAE-backed STC dominates the south, including Aden, and has expanded its control into Hadramaut and Almahra provinces after launching "The Promised Future" operation.
• ⚔️ This fragmented control and the collision of local and regional agendas have intensified the conflict, with the Hadramaut Tribal Alliance (HTA) also vying for control of resources like the Petromasila oil field.

Mukala Airstrikes and Ultimatum

• 🚨 On December 30, 2025, Saudi jets launched "precision air strikes" on Mukala port, targeting ships allegedly from Fujairah (UAE) carrying armored vehicles and heavy weaponry for the STC.
• 💣 The strikes, which destroyed 15 armored vehicles, were a clear message from Riyadh to Abu Dhabi, asserting Saudi national security interests.
• 📜 Following the strikes, Saudi Arabia issued a 24-hour ultimatum for the UAE to withdraw all its forces from Yemen, leading to the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council canceling its defense agreement with the UAE and declaring a national emergency.

International Reactions and Future Outlook

• 🌍 The international community expressed deep concern, with the US urging diplomacy to prevent further instability from the conflict between these key allies.
• 💡 Experts noted the conflict highlights inconsistent external interference and the Houthis exploited the rift, even claiming the UAE asked them to attack Project Neom.
• 💔 The events of late 2025 signify a dangerous new phase in the Yemen conflict, where the Yemeni people continue to suffer from colliding geopolitical ambitions.