Ray Dalio: COMEX Has 11 Days Left — The Silver Funeral Nobody Is Ready For

Imminent COMEX Silver Crisis

• ⚠️ The COMEX March 2026 silver futures face a critical shortage, with 429 million ounces of open interest against a rapidly dwindling 103 million ounces of registered inventory.
• 📉 By February 27th, the first notice day, available registered silver is projected to fall to 85 million ounces, leading veteran analysts to discuss the "funeral of COMEX."
• ⚡ A 98% delivery rate in February, compared to a normal less than 1%, indicates a profound loss of trust in the paper silver market.

Systemic Breakdown of Paper Promises

• 💡 The entire futures system relies on the assumption that most will not demand physical delivery, but this assumption has now "shattered."
• 🏦 The speaker highlights a "bank run" on the world's largest silver exchange, as participants increasingly demand physical metal due to fear of future unavailability.
• 📜 While COMEX has mechanisms to avoid a formal default, the critical question is the impact on physical silver prices when the market realizes paper promises cannot be met.

Global Shifts in Silver Demand & Supply

• 🚀 Samsung has already bypassed COMEX, securing 100% of a mine's silver output directly, signaling a lack of trust in traditional channels.
• 🇨🇳 China's reclassification of silver as a strategic resource and subsequent export restrictions have cut 60-70% of global refined silver supply to the West.
• ⚡ Industrial demand for silver in technologies like solar, EVs, AI, and semiconductors is relentless, with no viable substitute, while supply is shrinking.

Three Scenarios for the Silver Market

• 📈 Scenario 1 suggests COMEX manages delivery, but the physical premium over paper price expands dramatically, diminishing the paper market's price-setting role.
• 📉 Scenario 2 involves COMEX raising margin requirements, causing a paper price crash and allowing "smart money" to accumulate physical silver at artificially low prices.
• 🔥 Scenario 3 predicts delivery demand exceeding COMEX's capacity, leading to force majeure, cash settlement, and a massive premium for physical silver, creating a permanent two-tier market.

Investor Action Plan

• ✅ Investors should understand the difference between physical allocated silver and paper promises like ETFs or unallocated accounts.
• 📊 Monitor the drainage math and watch for physical premiums over spot prices as indicators of market disconnection.
• 🗓️ Act before February 17th, ahead of an anticipated surge in Asian physical buying post-Chinese New Year and Ramadan.