New Polling: Trump's Republican Approval Declines, Harris's 2028 Prospects, and Texas Primaries

Declining Republican Support for Trump

• 📉 President Trump's approval rating among Republicans has fallen to approximately 81%, a notable decrease from the ~90% at the start of his second term.
• ⚠️ This decline is occurring even as his overall disapproval rating reaches a new high of about 57%.
• 💡 Potential factors contributing to this slippage include dissatisfaction with the economy, the Epstein files, and the focus on immigration.

Shifting Demographics and Trump's Support

• 👨‍🎓 Support among younger voters, particularly young men, shows signs of deterioration, a group that previously showed inroads for Trump.
• 🌎 Hispanic voters, who were sensitive to economic conditions in 2024, are also showing some movement away from Trump, with a disapproval rating of 59% among this group.
• 📊 While Trump still holds solid support among Republicans, the trend indicates some deterioration among his core constituency.

Kamala Harris's 2028 Presidential Prospects

• 🚀 Kamala Harris is showing early signs of preparing for a 2028 presidential campaign, evidenced by a book tour and social media relaunch.
• 📊 She currently leads early Democratic primary polling for 2028, benefiting from high name recognition among Democrats.
• ⚠️ Despite strong favorability among Democrats, her overall unfavorable rating among all respondents is around 47%, posing a potential challenge.
• 🗓️ The critical period for assessing her candidacy will be the first three months of 2027, after the 2026 midterms.

Texas Republican Primary Dynamics

• 🏛️ In the Texas Republican Senate primary, Senator John Cornyn is still favored to make the runoff but is in a weakened position.
• 📊 Ken Paxton leads the polling average at 32%, followed by Cornyn at 28% and Wesley Hunt at 19%.
• 🎛️ The race is dynamic, with voters potentially undecided between candidates, and Trump has indicated he is unlikely to endorse.

Texas Democratic Senate Race

• 🗳️ The Democratic Senate race in Texas between Tariq Del Rico and Jasmine Crockett is highly competitive, with polls showing a close contest.
• 📈 Del Rico has shown strong fundraising and gained attention, while Crockett entered the race late.
• ❓ The race could potentially go to a runoff if no candidate secures a majority.