Future of US and China Conference: Keynote on Shifting Global Order

🌍 Shifting Global Order and US-China Relations

• 💡 The 8th annual Future of US-China Conference focuses on a rapidly shifting global order, with the US-China relationship at its core.
• ⚠️ The Trump administration's outright rejection of the existing international order is seen as a structural shift, creating new dynamics.
• 🚀 Beijing's strategy has evolved from caution to actively taking advantage of opportunities arising from the US's perceived abdication of its leadership role.

🌐 Rise of a Multipolar World

• 🤝 The Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting, featuring Xi, Putin, and Modi, visually projected a multipolar world without the US.
• 🇨🇦 Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney discussed a "new world order" after making trade deals with China, with other European leaders expected to follow suit.
• 🇮🇳 India is pursuing a strategic independence posture, warming relations with Beijing and removing restrictions on foreign investment in its nuclear program.
• 💰 This era is characterized by "mercenary multipolarity," where short-term transactional deals replace long-term cooperative partnerships.

🇺🇸🇨🇳 Bilateral Dynamics and Stalemates

• 🎯 The US government has shifted from attempting to shape China's policies to actively blocking them, driven by concerns over China's growing impact.
• 🛡️ China's focus is on deterring unwelcome US measures and reducing US leverage without harming its own trade and investment.
• 🛣️ The relationship is described as a "strategic stalemate," with both countries metaphorically traveling through a tunnel, constrained but preparing for future independence.

📉 Challenges to Sustainable Globalization

• 📊 Six critical conditions for globalization include fair rules, effective dispute settlement, domestic political consensus, preventing a "race to the bottom," economic security, and protecting national interests.
• ❓ There's a significant question about whether these conditions are currently being met, leading to fragility in the global system.
• ⚽ The differing economic systems of the US and China are likened to two different "football games," making it challenging to find common ground for global play.

🌱 Pathways for Cooperation

• ✅ Despite tensions, there is an overlap of interests where the US and China can cooperate, which should be the focus for business and people-to-people contact.
• 🤝 The Asia Society aims to promote interaction and understanding between the US and the peoples of Asia in this increasingly complex world.
• 🔬 Examples of potential cooperation include reducing friction for cancer drug trials, discussing mental health with Olympic teams, and environmental preservation efforts like fishery protection in Indonesia.