Elliott Morris on Trump's Polling Decline Amid ICE Shootings

Shifting Public Opinion on Immigration

• 📉 Donald Trump's approval rating on immigration has fallen significantly, from plus 10 when he took office to approximately minus 10 currently, representing an 18-27 point drop.
• 📈 The idea of abolishing ICE has moved from a fringe concept to one with increasing public approval, with a 50 percentage point increase in net approval over the past six months.
• ⚠️ Public polling indicates overwhelming disapproval of ICE's use of force, with only 20-30% of Americans viewing the killings of Renee Good and Alex Prey as justified.

Demographic Shifts and Electoral Coalitions

• 🔄 A dramatic U-turn in support for Trump is observed among young people and non-white voters, who are now more anti-Trump than they were in 2020.
• 📊 The gains Trump made in individual demographic groups have been rolled back, suggesting a potential reversal of the 2020-2024 shift to the right.
• ⚠️ The data suggests that the previous perceived right-leaning shift among young people was a misreading, possibly influenced by an anti-incumbent bias related to inflation and post-pandemic sentiment.

The "Toxic Brand" Phenomenon in Politics

• 📌 A Republican candidate for governor in Minnesota dropped out, citing the national brand's negative impact due to the weaponization of ICE, indicating a flip in the "toxic brand" issue.
• 🔄 This suggests Republicans are now facing a similar challenge to the one Democrats experienced with unpopular brands, where candidates running away from the brand performed better.
• 💡 Political conditions can change rapidly, and over-reading short-term trends can lead to flawed electoral strategies.

Tipping Points and Political Realignment

• 🌡️ A thermostatic backlash occurs when policy moves too far in one direction, prompting a public desire for a return to the center or the opposite direction.
• 💥 The use of force in immigration enforcement might be at a tipping point, where the public rejects the level of violence and desires a less forceful approach.
• ⏳ While tipping points are often only identifiable in hindsight, events like the Vietnam War's Tet Offensive demonstrate how quickly political coalitions can shift.

Electoral Prospects and Future Power Dynamics

• 🗳️ Democrats are currently more enthusiastic and energized, making them likely to win competitive midterm seats and potentially gain a majority in the Senate.
• ⚖️ The real power in an anti-ICE or anti-DHS movement will likely come from Democrats, who can enforce their agenda when they regain power in Congress and the presidency.
• 📈 There's a possibility of Republicans losing their House majority and Democrats picking up a Senate majority if the Trump administration's approach to ICE does not change, with current odds for the Senate around 35% and approaching a 50/50 tipping point.