Claudia Sahm & Danielle DiMartino Booth on Jobs Report Revisions & Fed Policy

Impact of Government Shutdown on Jobs Report

• 📌 The Wednesday jobs report is highlighted as a significant event, with potential for substantial revisions to non-farm payrolls.
• ⚠️ A brief government shutdown caused a delay in the jobs report, but the speaker notes this is less impactful than previous shutdowns.
• 📉 The normal job growth rate, previously around 150,000 and adjusted down due to immigration, might be revised to as low as 25,000.

Kevin Warsh's Fed Nomination

• 🎯 Governor Kevin Warsh may need to issue an apology upon taking office due to his critical remarks about current Fed officials.
• 🤝 Despite his fiery campaign rhetoric, it's anticipated that Warsh will aim for collaboration with the staff he will soon lead.
• ⚠️ If Warsh attempts to implement his campaign promises of significant staff changes, he could face a difficult first six months.

Economic Perspectives on the Fed

• 💡 Claudia Sahm, a PhD economist, is contrasted with Fed officials like Powell and Warsh, who are not PhD economists.
• 📊 Danielle DiMartino Booth, formerly with President Fisher, discusses the hawkish tilt among central bank district presidents.
• 🏦 Many district presidents, including Lori Logan, are expected to agree with a future chair like Warsh on the need to shrink the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, though execution will be challenging.