Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend: US Jobs, Tech Earnings, Winter Olympics, Japan Election, RBA Policy

US Economic Outlook: Jobs and Fed Policy

• 📊 The January US jobs report is anticipated to show a stabilizing labor market, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.4%.
• 📈 Economists forecast around 70,000 non-farm payroll additions, a slight increase from the previous month but still subdued historically.
• ⚠️ The Federal Reserve is closely watching whether low hiring is due to companies not wanting to hire or a lack of available workers, potentially influenced by immigration policies.
• 🤖 The impact of artificial intelligence on the labor market is a growing concern, with potential job displacement for lower-skilled roles and even some in finance and law.

US Tech Earnings Preview

• 🚀 Alphabet is expected to show accelerating topline growth, with low to mid-teens growth for search and high teens for YouTube, driven by strong digital ad growth.
• ☁️ Google Cloud is projected to achieve at least 35% growth, potentially beating consensus due to Google's own TPU processors and avoiding GPU supply constraints.
• 💻 Amazon's AWS is expected to show sequential acceleration in its low 20% growth range, though supply constraints for AI compute capacity could impact performance.
• ⚡ AMD is anticipated to exceed expectations due to increased capex spending from hyperscalers like Meta and its deal with OpenAI, positioning it as a key player in AI infrastructure.

2026 Winter Olympics: Geopolitics and Readiness

• ❄️ The Milano Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics face challenges including geopolitical tensions and the logistics of venue readiness across multiple locations.
• 🇺🇸 US plans to deploy ICE staff for security details have caused controversy in Italy, though they will be confined to US consulates.
• 🌍 The games may highlight divisions between the US and Europe, despite efforts to present a unifying message through sport.
• 🏔️ While most venues leverage existing infrastructure, some new facilities are complete, and there's a focus on sustainability by reusing existing sites.
• 🌡️ Recent heavy snowfall has eased concerns about snow availability, though the reliance on artificial snow due to climate change remains a factor.

Japan's Snap Election and Economic Policy

• 🗳️ Prime Minister Kishida's Liberal Democratic Party is expected to win a snap election, aiming to extend its slim majority in the lower house.
• 📉 Voters are concerned about inflation, leading to proposals like a temporary tax cut on food to reduce the 8% sales tax to zero.
• 💰 The proposed tax cut, while popular, raises questions about revenue loss and the political feasibility of reinstating the tax later.
• 🛡️ Defense spending is expected to increase, aligning with US calls for allies to ramp up their military budgets.
• 🌐 Japan is experiencing a record influx of foreign workers and tourists, which, while boosting the economy, is causing discomfort for some segments of the population due to rising living costs.

Australia's Monetary Policy Outlook

• 📈 Australia's latest CPI reading showed inflation ticking up to 3.4% year-on-year, exceeding the RBA's 2-3% target band.
• 🏛️ A significant driver of inflation is administered prices, such as electricity and school fees, which are influenced by government decisions.
• 💰 The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is facing pressure to potentially hike rates, though they may look through this